The Crude Oil Logistics Committee Established in 1993

Forecasting Procedures - Section 2


Pipeline / Facility Capability

2.1.1 Setting Pipeline Connected Battery and Pipeline Connected Truck Terminal/Cleaning Plant Capability

Pipeline connected battery and pipeline connected truck terminal /cleaning plant capabilities shall be determined by the receiving feeder pipeline using the last three full months of known receipts into the pipeline. The three months to be used shall be the three months ending two full months before the beginning of the month being forecasted (eg. for March forecast, the three months of actuals to be used shall be October, November and December). Using these last three full months of known pipeline receipts, the feeder pipeline shall determine for each pipeline connected battery and for each pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant the sum of:

  • The highest month's average in m3/d, and
  • The average m3/d of all the three months

This sum is then divided by two to determine the capability for the next forecasting month.

Example:

Last 3 months of known receipts from a pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant

  • Month 1 - 1 000 m3/d }
  • Month 2 - 1 200 m3/d } - Average 1 066.7 m3/d
  • Month 3 - 1 000 m3/d }
  • Three month Average - - - - - 1 066.7 m3/d
  • Highest Month's Volume - - - 1 200.0 m3/d
  • Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 266.7 m3/d /2 = 1 133.4 m3/d

1 133.4 m3/d is the highest capability to which the pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant shall forecast without being required to provide detailed information to such receiving feeder pipeline in support of a capability increase. Increases to capabilities shall be decided upon by the receiving feeder pipeline operator. (See Section 2.2).

2.1.2 Setting Non-Pipeline Connected Battery and Non-Pipeline Connected Cleaning Plant Capability

Non-pipeline connected battery and non-pipeline connected cleaning plant capabilities shall be determined by the operator of the pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant that accepts volumes from the non-pipeline connected battery or cleaning plant for delivery into a feeder pipeline using the last three full months of known receipts from the non-pipeline connected battery or cleaning plant. The three months to be used shall be the three months ending two full months before the beginning of the month being forecasted (eg. for March forecast, the three months of actuals to be used shall be October, November and December). Using these last three full months of known receipts, the operator of the pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant shall determine for each non-pipeline connected battery and for each non-pipeline connected cleaning plant delivering to them the sum of:

  • The highest month's average in m3/d, and
  • The average m3/d of all the three months

This sum is then divided by two to determine the capability for the next forecasting month.

Example:

Last 3 months of known receipts from a non-pipeline connected battery or non-pipeline connected cleaning plant

  • Month 1 - 1 000 m3/d }
  • Month 2 - 1 200 m3/d } - Average 1 066.7 m3/d
  • Month 3 - 1 000 m3/d }
  • Three month Average - - - - - 1 066.7 m3/d
  • Highest Month's Volume - - - 1 200.0 m3/d
  • Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 266.7 m3/d /2 = 1 133.4 m3/d

1 133.4 m3/d is the highest capability to which the non-pipeline connected battery or non-pipeline connected cleaning plant shall forecast without being required to provide detailed information to such receiving pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant that accepts volumes from the non-pipeline connected battery or cleaning plant for delivery into a feeder pipeline in support of a capability increase. Increases to capabilities shall be decided upon by the receiving pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant operator.

Capabilities for non-pipeline connected batteries and non-pipeline connected cleaning plants shall be a subset of the capability of the pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant to which they forecast deliveries. It is the responsibility of the receiving pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant operator to monitor closely the performance of these non-pipeline connected batteries and cleaning plants as their own capability is partly based on the performance of the non-pipeline connected facilities.

2.1.3 Setting Feeder Pipeline Capability

Feeder pipeline capabilities shall be determined by the feeder pipeline operator in conjunction with the Crude Oil Logistics Committee Administrative Office using the last three full months of known deliveries out of the pipeline. The three months to be used shall be the three months ending two full months before the beginning of the month being forecasted (eg. for March forecast, the three months of actuals to be used shall be October, November and December). Using these last three full months of known deliveries, the pipeline shall determine the sum of:

  • The highest month's average in m3/d, and
  • The average m3/d of all the three months
  • This sum is then divided by two to determine the capability for the next forecasting month.

(This excludes volume deliveries from upstream pipelines that have their own capability. See Section 4.5)

Example:

Last 3 months of known deliveries from a pipeline

  • Month 1 - 1 000 m3/d }
  • Month 2 - 1 200 m3/d } - Average 1 066.7 m3/d
  • Month 3 - 1 000 m3/d }
  • Three month Average - - - - - 1 066.7 m3/d
  • Highest Month's Volume - - - 1 200.0 m3/d
  • Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 266.7 m3/d /2 = 1 133.4 m3/d

1 133.4 m3/d is the highest capability (except as set out herein) to which the pipeline shall verify forecasts without being required to provide detailed information to the Crude Oil Logistics Committee Administrative Office in support of a capability increase. Increases to capabilities shall be decided upon by the Crude Oil Logistics Committee with input from the feeder pipeline operator and the Committee's Administrative Office.

Requests for change by the feeder pipeline shall be made by email to the Crude Oil Logistics Committee, Attention: Administrative Manager at info@colcomm.com by the seventh business day of the month prior to the forecast month. Requests for change need only be made if the deviation from the current calculated capability is more than 1% or 100 m3/d, whichever is greater. Later, the same day the Crude Oil Logistics Committee shall inform any pipeline whose request for capability increase is not approved. Where a capability increase is not approved by the Crude Oil Logistics Committee's Administrative Office, the request will automatically be forwarded to the Committee's Working Group for further review. Final review may be provided by the general membership at the next Committee meeting.

In any instance where a feeder pipeline's request for an increase in its capability is not approved by the Committee, the feeder pipeline operator may choose to verify initial nominations to the level of its requested capability level. Should the volume verified not materialize, the appropriate government agency shall be asked by the Committee Administrative Office to formally discuss the feeder pipeline's verification procedures.

2.2 Requested Increases to Capability Properly Supported by Complete Detail

To forecast an increase to capability that reflects new production, the battery operator will provide, in addition to the Form A (or equivalent), a detailed list of wells affected. This list will include the LSD of the well, its licence number, the spud date, the expected first date of production and the forecast of its production level for the month being forecasted.

In the case of new wells in Alberta that do not achieve Good Production Practices (GPP) status, the battery operator may forecast any part of the cumulative 2400 cubic metres for a new well during any of the four test months, The total forecast during the four months cannot exceed the 2400 cubic metres cumulative limit. This cumulative 2400 cubic metres of allowable production during the first four months of production test may not be increased without proof of extension from the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board.

In the case of new wells in Alberta that do achieve GPP status, either before start-up or after start-up, but during the new production test period and of new wells in other jurisdictions, no cumulative limit for new production testing currently exists. The battery operator is free to forecast start-up volumes based on the producer's predictions. However, the battery operator is required to apply prudent controls on such forecast new production volumes to avoid developing a low credibility rating with the feeder pipeline to which the forecast new production will be directed.

To forecast an increase in capability that reflects field or tank inventory, a battery operator will provide, in addition to the Form A (or equivalent), a detailed list of inventory sites involved. This list will include the LSD of each inventory source; its associated well, where applicable; and the working capacity of the tank.

In each case of forecast increases to capability, the appropriate receiving pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant or the feeder pipeline will review the request and, on a best efforts basis determine if the request should be accepted. Disputes arising from refusals by the appropriate receiving pipeline connected battery or pipeline connected truck terminal/cleaning plant or the feeder pipeline to accept such requests may be discussed with the Crude Oil Logistics Committee. Unresolved issues may be taken to the applicable government authority.

Requests for increases in capability will be scrutinized on an individual basis, retroactively. Battery operators requesting capability increases that do not materialize may see future requests for increases to capability refused due to a history of poor credibility.

 
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