The Crude Oil Logistics Committee Established in 1993

Forecasting Procedures - Section 4


Initial Shipper Field Supply Forecast - Form C

4.1 Feeder Pipeline - "Pipeline System Capability" and "Apportionment Factor"

Apportionment Factor ("App.F.") = "Capability" / "Sum of Verified Forecasts"

"Capability" is the system/facility capability as calculated by the appropriate receiving facility or feeder pipeline. (See Section 2).

"Sum of Verified Forecasts" is the sum of each of the Form A or Equivalent forecasts on the system as verified by the receiving facility or pipeline operator.

Each battery's "Verified Forecast" shall be determined using the following steps:

  1. Form A or Equivalent forecast shall be compared to the system/facility calculated capability.
  2. Forms A or Equivalent forecasts exceeding the calculated capability, without noted explanation (COMS/EDI Deviation Code and full detailed explanation),shall be ignored and shall be set by the receiving facility or pipeline to the system/facility calculated capability.
  3. Forms A exceeding the calculated capability, with explanation (COMS/EDI Deviation Code and full detailed explanation), shall be accepted on agreement by the appropriate receiving facility or pipeline.
  4. Forms A less than the system/facility calculated capability shall be accepted.
  5. Each shipper's split shall be based on the Form A split, multiplied by the appropriate total indicated in points 2. through 4. immediately above.

At each battery the adjusted forecast shall be calculated as follows:

"Adjusted Forecast" = App.F. x "Verified Forecast"

Where Forms A forecasts total less than the system "capability", the Capability Factor shall be set to 1.0 (i.e. - the App.F. shall not be greater than 1.0).

The feeder pipeline shall receive Forms A or Equivalent from its battery operators and from upstream systems (gathering pipelines etc.), shall calculate the App.F. for its entire system, and shall provide each shipper with a Form C, indicating both the original and the App.F. Adjusted Forecast. The gathering pipeline's total shall be indicated as a single volume.

The feeder pipeline also shall provide this system App.F. to the gathering pipeline. The gathering pipeline, using this App.F., shall provide each of its shippers with a Form C, indicating both the original and the App.F. Adjusted Forecast supply detailed to the battery level. This procedure will insure that the Form C totals provided by the gathering pipeline, and by the feeder pipeline (for the gathering pipeline) are identical.

4.2 Reporting - Form C

For any system utilizing an assigned capability, the apportionment factor shall be displayed on the Form C, along with:

  • The original "Verified Forecast" at each battery
  • The "App.F. - Adjusted Forecast" at each battery
  • The totals of the original "Verified Forecast" and the "App.F. - Adjusted Forecast" at each battery
  • The source (basis) of the supply data is indicated beside each battery
  • "A" based on Form A forecast volume
  • "H" based on historical formula calculation
  • "U" based on verification by upstream gathering pipeline or other facility

4.3 Truck Terminal Operator

In most cases, truck terminals are treated the same as a pipeline-connected battery.

Where appropriate, separate apportionment factors shall be applied at a truck terminal, in the same manner as with a feeder pipeline, i.e. truck terminal operators shall provide Form C Forecasts to its shippers and an App.F. adjusted Form A to the downstream system.

Verification of supply to the downstream system shall be provided by the date noted in the Forecast Reporting Calendar (24 hours prior to the downstream system Form C deadline).

4.4 Gathering Pipeline Operator

In most cases, gathering pipeline shall be treated the same as a pipeline connected battery.

Where appropriate, separate apportionment factors shall be applied at a gathering pipeline, in the same manner as with a feeder pipeline, i.e. gathering pipeline operator shall provide a Form C forecast to each of its shippers and a App.F. adjusted Form A to the downstream system.

Verification of supply to the downstream system shall be provided by the date noted in the Forecast Reporting Calendar (24 hours prior to the downstream system Form C deadline).

4.5 Application of Upstream Capabilities

Upstream capabilities (for gathering pipelines, upstream connected feeder pipelines, pipeline connected truck terminals/cleaning plants not operated by the feeder pipeline to which they are connected) shall be applied at the instigation of either the upstream or downstream system, with the assistance of the Committee.

  • Upstream capabilities shall be determined in the same manner as in Section 2.
  • The upstream system receives Form A's from battery operators and calculates the App.F. for its system. The upstream system provides the feeder pipeline with unadjusted forecast totals by shipper on Form A's and indicates the upstream system's separate App.F. (4 decimals) on the comments section of the Form 'A'.
  • The feeder pipeline shall receive Forms A or Equivalent forecasts from its battery operators and shall calculate the App.F. for its own pipeline (excluding any upstream systems with a separate App.F.). It shall provide each of its shippers with a Form C, indicating both the original and the App.F. adjusted forecast supply, having applied the appropriate App.F. to each receipt point. The upstream system shall be provided as a single entry.
  • The upstream system, applying its own separate App.F., shall provide each of its shippers with a Form C, indicating both the original and the App.F. adjusted forecast supply detailed to the battery level. This procedure shall insure that the Form C totals provided directly by the upstream system, and by the feeder pipeline (for the upstream system) shall be identical.

4.6 Communication With Battery Operators

Pipelines shall advise the connected facility operator of changes from original forecast production levels. Connected facility operators shall advise any upstream operators of changes from the original forecast production levels.

4.7 Bi-Directional Pipelines

Where a feeder pipeline has the ability to deliver in two directions, the bi-directional feeder pipeline will ensure that the same volume is not forecast or nominated in both directions. Volumes that are pipeline connected and that enter the bi-directional pipeline between a directional division point and the downstream end of the bi-directional pipeline must be forecast and nominated in the direction of the physical flow of that section of the pipeline. Volumes that are pipeline connected and enter the bi-directional pipeline in a section of the pipeline that can deliver in either direction may be forecast and nominated in either direction. While such volumes may be split between the two directions, the total volume forecast and nominated cannot exceed the volume available for forecast/nomination.

 
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