Supply Forecasting & Notice of Shipment (NOS) Verification Procedures - Section 5

5.0 Forecast of Supply

5.1 Form A

The Form A (see Appendix for sample form) is a forecast of total supply, by Shipper, from a supply point. It is prepared by the Operator of the supply Facility and provided to the downstream Delivery Point Operator (Terminal, Pipeline, Custom Treater, etc.).

To complete the Form A, the Facility Operator will need to:

• Obtain a forecast of production for the Facility for the forecast month (production plus any volumes received into the Facility from other supply points)
• Factor any changes to ownership of production (including Crown share if applicable) into the Shipper breakdown reflected on the Form A
• Complete the fields on the Form A form
• Provide explanations on the Form A for unusual operational activities (unratable production, turnarounds, etc.)
• Provide the appropriate Deviation Code and enough explanation to adequately substantiate the forecast where the supply forecast is greater than the calculated 3-month historical Capability (see Section 6.0 of these Procedures) calculated by the downstream Facility Operator.
  
  If required, the Operator of the Facility may be required to provide more detail:
  • For new well production, a detailed list of wells affected including LSD of the well, its license number, the spud date, the expected first date of production and the forecast of its production level for the month being forecast
  • For field or tank inventory reductions, a detailed list of inventory sites involved, including the LSD of each inventory source and the Working Capacity of the tank.
• Submit the Form A to the appropriate downstream Delivery Point operator

Note: In the event a Form A is not filed with the downstream delivery Facility by the required deadline, the operator of the receiving Facility will attempt to obtain the required Form A. If no Form A is received and volume is expected from that Facility, the downstream delivery Facility Operator may revert to the system calculated Capability for the Facility and its Shippers.

Form A - Revisions

When the forecast of supply volume changes, or is expected to change, or the Shipper breakdown (ownership) changes, the Operator of the Facility will create a revised Form A (including deviation code as applicable) and provide it to the downstream operator. Requirements of Revised Form A's are the same as all Form A's. However, a Form A Revision also triggers the requirement for the Operator of the supply Facility to prepare a Form B (see Section 5.3 following).

Form A revisions are reviewed by the receiving downstream Delivery Point Operator who will advise the party providing the revised Form A if the supply is being accepted to the reforecast level. See Section 7.2 Producer Feedback Report.

5.2 Transfer Form A (or Equivalent)

A Transfer Form A is a Form A (same requirements). The distinction between a Form A and a Transfer Form A is due to logistical and timing requirements in the supply forecasting chain (see following illustration).

5.3 Form B

A Transfer Form A is a Form A (same requirements). The distinction between a Form A and a Transfer Form A is due to logistical and timing requirements in the supply forecasting chain (see following illustration).

A Form B (see Appendix, Item 12.4, for sample form) is created by the Operator of the Supply Facility whenever they revise their Form A. The Form B is issued by the Operator of the Supply Facility to each individual Shipper listed on the revised Form A. It is a notification of revised supply forecast after original Forecasts have been processed for a forecast month.

When revised forecasts trigger a Form B the Delivery Point will advise the Operator submitting the revised forecast if the supply can be accepted to the reforecast level. See Section 7.2 Producer Feedback Report.

Timing: Activities in this section that are identified in the COLC Reporting Calendar shall be completed in accordance with the dates/times shown therein.